Who is winning?

The races that decide it

Each row compares the four readings. When votes come in, the last column fills itself.

The vote so far

Early and mail ballots already cast, according to official reports and public trackers.

How it updates

• My forecast: the numbers I signed on October 1, with one correction on October 17: Michigan and Minnesota stayed with the Democrats (52 to 48); on October 30 Michigan moves to the Republicans and the Senate ends 53 to 47.
• No-poll model: the electoral map, the 2025 and 2026 votes, midterm history and the household economy, simulated 20,000 times.
• Polls: public averages for each race and poll-based forecasts. Updated daily through November 2.
• Results: from 6:00 p.m. Eastern on November 3, every hour through the night and then daily until counting ends.
• The page checks for new data every two minutes on its own. No need to reload.

My own analysis of public data. Not investment or betting advice.